a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  1030 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: For the Avi Loeb fans

Pan-STARRS was commissioned primarily to detect earth-threatening objects, a mission first proposed by - wait for it - Arthur C. Clarke in 1972. 'Oumuamua is part of the 1.6 petabytes of data that isn't things that threaten earth. First light on Pan-STARRS was December 2008. 'Oumuamua was discovered in October 2017.

The argument against LIGO was that it was only sensitive enough to observe black holes colliding, an event that the astronomical community liberally predicted happened every hundred years or so. Conservatively, maybe every thousand. The first run observed zero gravity waves in ten years. The second run, with improved interferometry, observed three in nine months.

There is exactly zero coincidence in Pan-STARRS' discovery of 'Oumuamua. It uses the methods used to discover Pluto. None of the other 1.6 petabytes' worth of observation, however, has found anything quite as weird. On the other hand, LIGO discovering exactly what it was designed to discover 50 times over had the effect of demonstrating conclusively that black holes collide a fuckton more often than we thought before we had any data.

The purpose of observation is to generate data. Generating data and going "hmmm.... this data is peculiar" is how breakthroughs happen.





goobster  ·  1029 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I gotta go back and re-read that section of the book, again. I remember him saying that they sensed Oumuamua within 3 weeks of the device powering up...? Was there something else that saw it first, and then Pan-STARRS was pointed at it to get more info as it left?

Man... I need to finish that book.

But yeah... you make a great point; the more data we have, the better we will be able to assess exactly how unique RAMA was/is...

kleinbl00  ·  1029 days ago  ·  link  ·  

"what you think you read" does not jive with "what is easily searchable." 'Oumuamua was discovered by observing through Pan-STARRS nine years after first light. Pan-STARRS' mission is a part of ATLAS, which is supposed to detect Earth-threatening objects down to 10m. Despite this, 'Oumuamua, " a small object estimated to be between 100 and 1,000 metres (300 and 3,000 ft) long," was not detected when it entered within 1AU in August, nor when it rounded the sun in September. It was only detected on the way out in October (almost as if we were seeing its bright side). The same survey had imaged 'Oumuamua on the 14th and 17th of October, but it wasn't until the 3rd observation on the 19th of October that anybody noticed. At which point everything was pointed at it:

    Observations and conclusions concerning the trajectory of ʻOumuamua were primarily obtained with data from the Pan-STARRS1 Telescope, part of the Spaceguard Survey, and the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), and its composition and shape from the Very Large Telescope and the Gemini South telescope in Chile, as well as the Keck II telescope in Hawaii. These were collected by Karen J. Meech, Robert Weryk and their colleagues and published in Nature on 20 November 2017. After the announcement, the space-based telescopes Hubble and Spitzer joined in the observations.

From the COVID article you should read:

    The Lancet statement effectively ended the debate over COVID-19’s origins before it began. To Gilles Demaneuf, following along from the sidelines, it was as if it had been “nailed to the church doors,” establishing the natural origin theory as orthodoxy. “Everyone had to follow it. Everyone was intimidated. That set the tone.”

Wikipedia on 'Oumuamua:

    In July 2019, astronomers concluded that ʻOumuamua is most likely a natural object. A small number of astronomers suggested that ʻOumuamua could be a product of alien technology, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is weak.