Why is that?
What monetary value do you ascribe to living (vs. dying) in the "costs" section of the risk equation? Just trying to do some basic economics maths.
The model’s default assumes only 10% of positive cases are tested. That’s a big driver of these numbers. You could test this model with random spot testing. It’s possible that 20% of the US has contracted it. If 6M cases have been reported, and only 10% are tested, then 60M have contracted it thus far. My guess us that it’s lower, like the 20% tested setting.
If you take that assumption you need to put it both in the numerator and the denominator and it cancels out. Because it means that there were 10x more cases but the complications were therefore 10x less likely. Hence why you need to look at a value like %chance of death or %chance of covid complication to decide risk.