This article's writer is statistically challenged. It make me angry the article age so bad, it is funny (I mean very sad) to look at only a few day later 21 march: 388 death Yeah, they were right to worry: it grow fast (x6 in 5 days). I cant wait for tomorrow when it will probably be at 680, and in 2 week when it will be around 6800 Ok that's the point I stopped paying attention. You have data from dozen country to check. BUT he decided the only relevant information is the diamond princess. Forgot to say that 15 people on the boat are still in a critical state. Diamond Princess population is so small, any death/recovery drastically change the stats. 10 more people die (out of the 150 still ill) and you're at the 3% death rate used by WHO. Using only Diamond princess data is disingenuous at best, criminal at worst... because I cant help but suspect that this guy has an agenda.. nobody can be so insincere Not only he took the smallest death rate of all country: 1,4% . Then rounded it to 1% then assumed the boat population is elderly (is it? Do he know the medium age on that cruise, or he watched "love boat" and make his assumption? Arent those cruise population also known to be wealthy, and probably very healthy to go traveling for weeks?.. I watched Love Boat too!), then he cut the rate to 0.3% .. really?! That is not mathematics, it is magic My guess, this guy must be a Russian spy trying to get people to not care.Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis —
Whether you agree or not, he knows more about this than you. Here's a link to his pubmed page. Statistically challenged, indeed.
This is not about agreeing. I'm already agreeing with him. Covid probably isn't deserving of such a governmental reaction. But he is statistically wrong. You don't exclusively use 712 data point, when you have 200 000 available. Then make guesstimate around those 712 point. This is deceit. So if he knows math, then he has an agenda and he is purposefully lying about statistic to fulfill it. Seriously the CIA should check this guy
I don't think that's what he's saying. I think he's saying there are so many degrees of freedom here that the uncertainty range is enormous, and one can construct any money if arguments that this disease isn't close to the apocalypse. Therefore, without data, we don't have any basis on which to judge the damage we're causing by all but closing society relative to what we're saving in terms of fewer infections.
He use the old "we are not sure" argument. It's a scam parading as science https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufactured_controversy death rate on the ship just went up to 1,7 %.. And a simple wiki search would have debunked his assumption about infected being old: If the young crew was exposed to covid, his all argument fall even more flat. I cant wait till we find who paid this guy to spurt this non-sense of an articleOpponents of public health and environmental regulations often try to “manufacture uncertainty” by questioning the validity of scientific evidence on which the regulations are based. Though most identified with the tobacco industry, this strategy has also been used by producers of other hazardous products.