a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by am_Unition
am_Unition  ·  1741 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Fall of Wuhan

Let us hope that the mortality rate is much lower, due to a chronic underreporting of mild cases.

Let us hope that the mortality rate is NOT much higher, due to chronic suppression of unfavorable statistics by the Chinese government.

No worries, I trust my own government about as much. "Caronavirus" happened on @realDonaldTrump hours ago.





kleinbl00  ·  1741 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The former Obama CDC guy says the death rate is probably grossly overstated because he doesn't see how they're testing even a reasonable percentage of cases.

    In Wuhan, China, the reported proportion of diagnosed patients who die is now 3%. That's a substantial over-estimate; many patients weren't tested, many infected people don't have symptoms and hospitals were overwhelmed. The proportion could be as low as less than 1 in 1,000 -- 30 times lower -- and is unlikely to be more than 1 in 100. The actual rate makes a huge difference, not only to patients but also to decisions about interventions.