The US pulled out of the nuclear deal and applied sanctions. The sanctions are crippling, if you deal with Iran than you can't do business in the US. They have absolutely rocked an already unsteady Iranian economy. Iran has engaged in many provocative acts over past year to try and force the world community to come to the table and improve conditions in the country. Many of these provocative acts have rubbed up against American interests. Aside from working the sanctions as hard as humanly possible the Trump administration has chosen to not too respond. Trump has talked about how he doesn't want war with Iran many times. Iran has been gaining some traction with the world community and had little incentive to ease off. The Trump administration was begining to look weak or passive. I guess the buck stopped when an American contractor was killed. Will Iran back off now that the US has bared its teeth? Will Iran redouble the pressure? Who knows, I don't think the Iranians know. They probably have to respond in some way to save face with their own public and assorted allies but I'm sure someone is trying to figure out how to deescalate the situation. Will both sides take a path that lowers the temperature? The Iranian public has been in the streets, outraged at the status quo in recent months. The government has violently suppressed the protests. We are talking about scores or possibly hundreds of dead, the counts have been suppressed by the government and bodies keep showing up. This is a big problem for the government. The Iranian government is far from monolithic. There are many competing factions. The Ayatollah is old and might be the last Ayatollah who has significant power. The president has been under a negative propaganda assault from the incredibly powerful revolutionary guard who would like to see their own guy in the presidency (I can't remember this guy's name for the life of me, maybe he is the guy we just wacked but I suspect not). Iranians have shown time and again that when the are attacked by outside forces, they stick together. I don't know anything about the guy the US killed and that about all I know bout the Iranian situation right now.
Minor detail: The company that owns my company makes truck parts. They do business with Iran. My job is essentially government contracting, so I often have to sign forms that say we do business with Iran. It doesn't prevent us from doing business in the US. It's just a form you fill out and submit along with your bid. If anyone at the buyer has an issue with the Iran thing, they can throw our bid out because we do biz with Iran. But they don't. I honestly don't think anyone reads that form; in today's globalized economy it just isn't practical to think your little form can stop a $50 bn company from doing business wherever the fuck they want to.
I was looking for some good charts but this BBC piece does most the work for me. As a result of the sanctions, Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted an estimated 4.8% in the 2018 and is forecast to shrink another 9.5% in 2019 , according to the International Monetary Fund. The unemployment rate meanwhile rose from 14.5% in 2018 to 16.8% in 2019. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-middle-east-48119109 There's lots more horrible reading to be done. If you're an American NGO that stands against the current government you've talked to your bank about why it should give you your money. If your an Iranian hospital trying to buy medicine you've had trouble finding a bank to deal with you. My wife had venmo stop payment for an $8 Cubano sandwich because her topic line was Cuba, the payment was to the guy who sits at the desk next to her. Good luck venmoing someone in Iran. Your company must have a waiver from the Treasury. I bet it was a lot of paper shuffling to get it done.
I feel like the response from Iran was basically the equivalent of "we don't want any trouble". Felt like the minimum they could do and save face. I'm sure there will be more to come, but they seem to be on eggshells out of the gate. Maybe they are just buying time for something more though.Will Iran back off now that the US has bared its teeth?
I was talking Paul about this today and he suggested that accidentally shooting down that Ukrainian passenger jet the other day may have added to their desire to chill shit out a bit. Makes sense to me. They don't want a US hot war and they just killed a bunch of civilians on accident. Time to chill before the next round of pressure. They have keep pushing as long as they suffer under crippling sanction, either that or roll over on their backs and give up everything to Trump. Iranians are a hard, strong people, they aren't about to roll over.