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comment by WanderingEng
WanderingEng  ·  1721 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Global Nuclear Arsenals 2019

Is it credible that North Korea has 20-30?





kleinbl00  ·  1721 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    - Estimated as of June 2019 to have approximately 20-30 warheads and the fissile material for 30-60 nuclear weapons.

    - While there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding North Korea's fissile material stockpile and production, particularly on the uranium enrichment side, North Korea is estimated to have 20-40 kilograms of plutonium and 250-500 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. The estimated annual production of fissile material is enough for 6-7 weapons.

    - North Korea operates its 5-megawatt heavy-water graphite-moderated reactor used to extract plutonium in the past for nuclear warheads on an intermittent basis since August 2013. There has also been intermittent activity at North Korea's reprocessing facility since 2016, indicating that Pyongyang has likely separated plutonium from the reactor's spent fuel.

    - North Korea unveiled a centrifuge facility in 2010. It is likely that Pyongyang is using the facility to produce highly-enriched uranium for weapons. U.S. intelligence suggests that there are several additional centrifuge facilities in North Korea.

    - By 2020, experts estimate that North Korea could have anywhere between 20-100 nuclear warheads based on the rate of its stockpile growth and technological improvements.

Arms Control Association, who get their data from SIPRI

A "nuclear weapon" is anything fissile capable of generating an explosive reaction. PU239 has a critical mass of 11 kilos; if they've got 40 kilos of highly-enriched plutonium they've got three gun-type nukes right there. There's a world of difference, however, between three pits (10cm ea!) and a Minuteman III.

That said, US Forces Korea just certified North Korea's biggest and baddest ICBM for enough range to clobber us all.