Read my lips: Musk can't pull it off.
I mostly agree with you. The smart money and my own pessimism (Let's say recovering pessimist) are in agreement on that. There is a chance, however slim, that he pulls it off and a random rock floating through the system will no longer mean the flash-annihilation of the whole biosphere.
I still don't see anybody else trying. The guys riding, or not riding, the vomit comet for funsies are not the folks I imagine funding a moon base or floating shipyard/refinery or the ones I'd imagine going to Mars. When I say a Musk or Bezos like character that's really the type of individual I am talking about to fund/organize such a venture. That smaller pool you referenced. As far as the 'what are they going to do up there?' problem, I am hedging my bets that there is economic incentive in mining asteroids. As an example, there could be a small station that refines hydrogen/hydrazine from dirty snowballs and will top-up your satellite for a fraction of the cost of sending a refueling mission from deep in the gravity well. I definitely think that there is not enough information to completely rule out the idea that there is value to be found outside of that well.
When he fails you are welcome to rub all the salt you want in every bloody wound you can find. I already ate crow when Mars One was exposed, I'm used to the taste.