Can you elaborate on this? I've been looking at buying, selling my condo in favor of a house. Prices seem fairly reasonable.and I sure as shit wouldn't buy a house in this market unless I absolutely had to
The market is going to slow down as interest rates climb. As rates climb the people with adjustable rate mortgages that were borderline able to buy will have to either sell.... NOW or get foreclosed on. This is about where we were right before things got exciting in 2007. If you are in a good place, like the area, and don't need to move? Save like a mother fucker, know the value of the areas you want to live in, and start to look for deals at the end of the year. I'm just some dude, not a prophet, not a financial advisor so take that for what it is worth.
See, and I don't even think the interest rates will matter that much. Sure - rates go up, prices will go down as financing becomes more dear but it won't change the transactional nature of home sales. I think credit got way too goddamn easy again. Go google "subprime loans" or, for true fun'n'games, "subprime car loans" or "student loan debt" and tell me how we're going to walk this one back gently, no interest rate shenanigans necessary.
If you've got something to sell, sell. I can't say we're at the tippity top of the market but things are starting to look pretty bubbly. Redfin recently reported that days-on-market is eight days shorter this year than last year and in the markets I watch, prices have long since detached from reality. Wanna see the hottest-shit neighborhood in LA? Here you go. Median income? $42k a year. 58% renters. 8.4% with a college degree. Wikipedia used to say 80% of the 85% latino population was Mexican nationals but they don't anymore. Nonetheless, home values are increasing 8% per year and the median home price? $563k. I happen to know this weapons-grade shithole rather well as I have to live there 3-6 months out of the year. And yes - there are now well-heeled hipsters moving into the barrio responsible for LA's draconian anti-gang laws. Do the math. You're supposed to spend no more than 28% of your income on mortgage payments. That's a $980/mo mortgage payment. If you're buying the median home with the median income and making the suggested payment, you put over $350k down - over 60% of the value of the home. How likely do you think that is? How much more likely is it that there's loose cash buying up properties because there isn't anything else making money? And what happens when people would rather put up with roommates than pay more than a half million dollars for this shithole?
Meanwhile, here's what $550k gets you here. But this is more my thought. You make a lot of good points. I like to think that it's saner around here, but I'm not sure we're immune to booms and busts. What will it take for west coast bubbles to permanently pop?
Man I love Wisconsin. If I could have made that work... Dunno how you and the missus feel about kids but my suggestion is that 1000sqft is gonna be fine for the two of you and as soon as you invoke a little one it's gonna feel tight. We did 1100sqft with the two of us and hobbies and it was tight. Then we did 1300sqft with the three of us and hobbies and it was tight. INB4 some tinyhouse choad starts talking about minimalism. SoCal is gonna pop like a goddamn champagne cork as soon as the water's all gone. Everywhere else with a tech/med/finance community? It all comes down to the fact that companies are no longer required to make money to be worth something. The entire South Lake Union area of Seattle is testament to the fact that people go orgasmic when Amazon makes $500m profit on $32b in sales. GM earned $1.34 a share last quarter. Their shares cost $35. Amazon will probably earn a buck this quarter (they announce tomorrow). Their shares cost $909 right now.
Bubbles pop? Holy shit you know it's one hell of a shithole when they won't even post pictures of the indoors.And what happens when people would rather put up with roommates than pay more than a half million dollars for this shithole?
Dude. They didn't even line the shots up with the horizon. It's like the Blair Witch Listing - run by with your camera phone, plaster it in burst mode and post the five least offensive shots you catch. When this blog starts to look familiar, we're nearing the end. Keep your eye out for pergraniteel.
lol. That's like half the houses listed in our price range. We've learned long ago that if there are four photos or less for a house, it's not worth seeing.Holy shit you know it's one hell of a shithole when they won't even post pictures of the indoors.