How is your portfolio doing? After losing $19.53 (31 shares) on my bet that Trump would utter the phrase "Crooked Hillary" at the first debate, I became a bit disillusioned with PredictIt. I considered, since I was spending time looking at the markets anyway, maxing out on a position and trying to make some real money. A Clinton election win was trading in the low .70s, so a maximum stake of $850 at 73¢ would buy 1164 shares. These would pay, Deo volente, $1164, less the ten percent fee on profit, yielding almost $200 by November 9. That's over 23% profit in a month ... but the polls were awfully close in early October, and $850 is more money than I am comfortable risking. Maxing in that market today (at 83¢) would yield only $71.60. So I am still growing my $50 in seed money. My $47 profit on Johnson's poll numbers was a lucky fluke; I made the same bet in the next round and lost, but fortunately only bought two shares at 24¢ since most of my funds were now long on Clinton. I have 95 shares of DEM.PREZPRTY16 with an average price of 72¢. This stake is now up $10.42, and I plan to let it ride. Meanwhile I find that putting something on the line makes the debates less horrifying to watch, so I have 11 shares of No in Will Clinton and Trump shake hands before the UNLV debate? (average price 39¢ each, position up $0.36 on news that the Clinton campaign has requested that family members not shake hands). Creativity gave me a tip that François Fillon was showing a nonzero price for winning the French Les Républicains primary. Assured that both Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy would have to die by November 27 for Fillon to have a chance, I entered a max buy order with my spare funds. I only got one "No" share, at 55¢. I bought again, and got a share at 60¢. I kept buying a share at a time, and after buying at 80¢ had bid the price up to 97¢. Apparently this was a new market and PredictIt seeded it with shares at a range of prices until buyers and sellers would settle somewhere. My six shares are up $1.78 ... Creativity: I am buying at Macdo next time you visit.
My portfolio went kaput during the September markets for NFL protests. Specifically in a market predicated on two or more players kneeling during a particular game. I went all in, similarly looking for a serious gain, and lost because the market specifically defined kneeling so all the other shows of solidarity didn't qualify. I lost my original $50 investment, which saw a maximum liquidity of $180 or so at one point, if memory serves. I don't think I want to buy in again, even though I've checked the site and seen some undervalued positions. It's hard for me not to become obsessive, and my time is already short and valuable as is, let alone what little money I have. At the end of the day, it's a go big or go home proposition. I couldn't justify the hours on the site and having not a whole lot to show for it. Making a few dollar gain after hedging or researching a lot every day isn't worth it, and I'm too poor (and probably chickenshit) to gamble with the thousands necessary to make gains worthwhile from a money-value of time perspective. But it's great to hear that you're still in it! One of my friends has made $5k after less than a $100 buy-in. I don't know whether he should get out or keep it up... he's demonstrated incredible aptitude.
Update: recent events have reduced my portfolio value to about ten bucks. I was greedy, broke my own guidelines, and got caught up in the hysteria. But no excuses, I was wrong and having a lot of company doesn't change that. I'll be less smug and less confident for a while.
Yea, you are certainly not alone. I'll reveal a secret: I was very, very close to planting $850 on a "Pence elected VP: No" resolution that I thought was undervalued (lmao, he fucking won) at 70 cents. Like so close. End of the day I couldn't justify it, even after asking my successful friend at the game to talk me into it. Really glad. I bet there's actually a lot of people who are kicking themselves, to put it mildly.
Ah, sorry to hear that you went bust. It's hard to anticipate those edge cases. I like to buy No shares just because there are lots of ways a thing might not happen, but only one way in which it can happen. I just saw a contract on the Treasury's choice of a woman to put on the $10 bill this year. They changed their mind and decided to put Harriet Tubman on the $20 instead, but there were already 10,491 shares circulating for Wilma Mankiller on the ten, which looks like a pretty safe No. I think I have the same tendency toward obsession; if I had serious money in I would be spending too much time on the project.