6344 shares of NO in "at least 370 GOP electoral votes" are available now at 89ยข. These would pay a dollar each by November 9. I have been avoiding such narrow margins, but you made me think again. After the 10% fee the profit would be a dime per share, just over 11% in 64 days, equivalent to an annual rate of 64% if my math is right. That's not so bad, for an almost-sure bet.... But to make a respectable profit of $100, I would need to buy a thousand shares, staking $890. That is just over the limit of $850 per contract, and also well beyond my comfort zone. It makes me start imagining how things could go wrong ... what if Clinton has to drop out because of a health issue? That's what I love about having something on the line. It makes me look for ways in which I could be wrong, taking the outside view. Looking for evidence that contradicts our expectations, rather than confirms them, is a difficult and essential aspect of good thinking.So if you have any money you'd like to see grow 11%
One outcome of playing PredictIt as much as I have is understanding in a new light what exactly Clinton has a 74% chance of winning but a 26% chance of losing means. Putting $850 (1,148 shares) on a 74% sure-thing is a different beast than thinking Trump was a moron in that immigration speech and Hillary really ought to sweep this whole thing. Even though, statistically, they're the exact same thing.