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blackbootz · 3078 days ago · link · · parent · post: A New Hobby of Mine: PredictIt, a prediction market
One outcome of playing PredictIt as much as I have is understanding in a new light what exactly Clinton has a 74% chance of winning but a 26% chance of losing means. Putting $850 (1,148 shares) on a 74% sure-thing is a different beast than thinking Trump was a moron in that immigration speech and Hillary really ought to sweep this whole thing. Even though, statistically, they're the exact same thing.