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comment by b_b
b_b  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Planning the Purge: GOP life after Trump

I'm having difficulty figuring out how they compile their odds. For example, NYT has Trump at 12% chance of victory. They have him at like 28% of winning FL, and a 7% chance of winning PA, with a 0% chance of winning without winning both. Not sure how you get a 12% overall chance from that. I guess they assume a strong correlation, so that if he does better than expected in one, he'll do better than expected in the other???





kleinbl00  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

538 goes so deep into their math if you care to look that statistics drop out of your nose.

Having read Nate Silver's book, I've determined that the nuances of statistics are keenly uninteresting to me but I sure like watching the big board.

Deltron_0  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

the bubble's gonna burst soon dude

kleinbl00  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Because...?

Deltron_0  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Earth revolves around the sun.

kleinbl00  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Do you have something to add? Or are you going to sit there and argue that a statistical compilation of every electoral poll run in the past 9 months does not reflect the true sentiment of the voting populace because, and I quote, "earth revolves around the sun"?

Deltron_0  ·  3019 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Statistics run on assumptions. Physics does not. The laws of nature are a function of physics. The laws of nature are the premise to the declaration of independence for the United States of America. The Earth revolves around the sun. The polls to this presidential race are as much value to a system of governance as the hyperloop is to a mag-lift. It's all built on a hidden agenda.

Deltron_0  ·  3019 days ago  ·  link  ·  

which in turn revolves around the sun, regardless.

Deltron_0  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

i think in need another week+ break from posting on hubski. More study I must make... I wish there were more weather eyes, and less weathered minds.

b_b  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Stats was the only college math class I ever did poorly in. And it wasn't because I wasn't capable. It was purely from soul crushing boredom. I attended as rarely as I could to still get a passing grade.

kleinbl00  ·  3020 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I hated stats because it was purely contingent on the accuracy of the model, yet 100% of the effort of statistics is in running the numbers on the assumption of the model.

No part of my stats class was spent on modeling.