a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  3074 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Brexit looks likely.

    How long do you think the EU is going to last?

5 years.

    How long do you think the Euro is going to last?

Less than 5 years.

    what has history revealed to us about the cycles of mankind?

Barbarians always come from the north to destroy, then inhabit, then become co-opted by the culture of the south.





veen  ·  3074 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    5 years

I doubt the EU is that easy to kill. It's such a large, comprehensive and vital bureaucracy - I think it could survive another economic crash. The EU might go through turbulent times but my guess is that it will be mostly intact when the dust settles a bit.

kleinbl00  ·  3074 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm mostly throwing numbers at the wall to provoke conversation. I freely acknowledge that we're so far outside anyone's model that prognostication of any kind is essentially random guesswork.

veen  ·  3074 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Got ya. I was wondering whether you had some particular insights that I didn't on the longevity of the EU besides earlier discussions. You're right though, this whole event is such an oddity that anything but guesswork is probably baseless.

That said, EC leader Juncker is already turning up the heat. I seriously wonder when Article 50 will be evoked, or if they just keep kicking the can down the road.

veen  ·  3074 days ago  ·  link  ·  
This comment has been deleted.
Deltron_0  ·  3074 days ago  ·  link  ·  
This comment has been deleted.