Bleak. So what to do then? It seems that the IS has got itself in a pretty good position, despite or because of the fact that they are willing and ready to sacrifice the lives everyone around them. The United States is damned if it attacks them (ground war in the Middle East) and damned if it doesn't (suffering indiscriminate terrorist attacks indefinitely). And knowing how scared Americans are after the attacks in Paris--polls put American fear for their security as high as in the immediate aftermath of 9/11--I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination to think that all it would take is an ISIS coordinated attack on American soil for the shit to hit the fan. What's to be done?
I think that the threshold is far lower than that, actually. If they did to an American plane what they did to the Russian plane, that would be a tipping point. Easier said than done, obviously, because our security situation is qualitatively different from Egypt's. But, it's not ironclad by any stretch. And if there's anything that makes people in the US jittery, it's airplanes. One bomb, even an unsuccessful bombing attempt where the attacker gets through TSA screening, would be a major game changer, I think. In the few years after 9/11 there were at least two failed bombing attempts on planes coming from Europe to the US, and people were able to keep their cool for the most part, so hopefully I'm not correct.I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination to think that all it would take is an ISIS coordinated attack on American soil for the shit to hit the fan.
I think we start by recognizing that ISIS are a bunch of penny-ante gloryhounds that want nothing more than the legitimacy of engagement with a prime conventional force. They don't have to win; when martyrdom is a major plank in your platform your cause is advanced simply through engagement. Nobody has ever worried about Libyan pirates taking over the world. Sure - wrong-headed apocalyptic idiots may align with an eschatological Wahibi sect and cause real violence. But they sure as fuck won't come from Iraq. You want to nip ISIS in the bud? Treat muslims at home like humans and give them less to relate to when they look at the shitheels hamming it up in the Fertile Crescent. There's a whole lotta Islam and the more you paint the guys in Detroit to look like the guys in Damascus the less they belong to your society. Islamic terrorism in the US and Europe is entirely the product of islamic denigration in the US and Europe. We cut that shit out and nobody will give a fuck about the crazies in the middle east. Ain't nobody in the US aligning with Boko Haram. You make ISIS seem as foreign and unrelatable as Boko Haram and the domestic problem becomes foreign affairs. PS I'm drunk.