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comment by demure
demure  ·  3383 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Here’s what happens when you try to replicate climate contrarian papers.

    We found that the ‘curve fitting’ approach also used in the Humlum paper is another common theme in contrarian climate research. ‘Curve fitting’ describes taking several different variables, usually with regular cycles, and stretching them out until the combination fits a given curve (in this case, temperature data). It’s a practice I discuss in my book, about which mathematician John von Neumann once said,

      With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.

    Good modeling will constrain the possible values of the parameters being used so that they reflect known physics, but bad ‘curve fitting’ doesn’t limit itself to physical realities. For example, we discuss research by Nicola Scafetta and Craig Loehle, who often publish papers trying to blame global warming on the orbital cycles of Jupiter and Saturn. (emphasis mine)





kleinbl00  ·  3383 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That graph is amazing. Thank you for digging that up.

demure  ·  3383 days ago  ·  link  ·  

No problem. Grabbed it from one of the links in the article.