It's an unsustainable situation. However, it's likely to get worse before it gets better. Not shown in this analysis - the REIT ownership of most of the real estate given up in the last property bubble. Trick here is that these are properties not managed for long-term gains and stability but for short-term market performance... this is one reason the rents are stupid. There's a large actor called "the market" attempting to squeeze blood from a stone. This will work until the market dumps, at which point the REITs will be left holding the bag exactly like all those ARM owners were in 2008. The end result will be the same - massive pricing depression, a foreclosure glut, recrimination in congress, beating of chests, rending of shirts, appeals for reform and a reshuffling of the deck once more. For serious - the people who saw the last housing crash coming saw it about a year out, and they saw the market crash that followed. I think we're 9-12 months from another housing crash. If'n you were to put together liquid assets towards a down payment it might do you more good in 24 months than now. Just sayin'. the fact that unlike the last property bubble was driven by individual speculators taking advantage of predatory loans so that banks could sell derivatives to each other
I'm genuinely curious what rising interest rates will do to home prices. People always max out their monthly expenditures, and seem to care very little about the actual price of the house. I have a decent equity cushion, so I'm not really worried about it, but look at the difference just a point makes. As an example, borrowing $300k at 4.5% gets you a very similar payment to borrowing $270k at 5.5%. That's a ten percent difference in borrowing power to a perspective buyer. That is doubtlessly going to affect sale prices, even if the brewing bubble doesn't pop as dramatically as in '08. I'm wondering if that will play into the rate at which the Fed increases their benchmarks (even though they're not directly related to mortgage rates).