Best I can do at the moment. It has since come to my attention that the birth rate for Palestinians far outstrips the birth rate for Israeli jews, which throws my overall conclusion in the crapper... That's what I get for reading "one more book."
This report suggests a decline in the birthrates of Arabs in Israel and around it and a rise in the Jewish birthrates. And it is not only due to the Jewish orthodox population (I thought this was the cause).It is unsurprising, at least in terms of falling Arab fertility rates, because it reflects well-documented trends elsewhere. In the period between the early 1960s and 2005-2010, the UN reports that the average woman in Egypt went from having more than 6.5 children to having fewer than three. In Lebanon, over the same period, the fall was from more than 5.5 to around 1.5, well below replacement level. In Jordan and Syria, too, declines in fertility were dramatic, from eight and 7.5 children per woman respectively in the early 1960s to around three and 3.5 in the 2005-2010 period.