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comment by user-inactivated
user-inactivated  ·  3991 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: CBO report out on the minimum wage increase

Why are you assuming 'we' is hubski? 'We' is economists. hubski's all over the map on this. Economics is very clear on the costs and benefits (in the short term, again) of fixing the price of labor.

    That chart illustrates a good point, which was also demonstrated in the paper kleinbl00 shared. When minimum wage is low compared to average incomes, an increase in minimum wage does not cause much harm.

Sure. It's a question of percentages, because the minimum wage is here to stay, which brings me to my next point --

    Either it is a net benefit or a net harm. If it is a benefit, then it makes sense to take measures to prevent dilution of the benefit by inflation. If it is harmful, it should be eliminated; we should not depend on inflation to gradually reduce the damage.

Spoken like a true economist; that is, one who doesn't care about elections.

The last bit was from something I read on r/economics quite a while ago. Can't find it. Doesn't change the facts; a minimum wage increase has significant employment effects, whatever the exact numbers are.





wasoxygen  ·  3991 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Why are you assuming 'we' is hubski? 'We' is economists.
Because I am not an economist. Economics may be clear on the subject — I think it is — but economists are a capricious lot.

    one who doesn't care about elections
Obviously this is important, unfortunately. Supporting minimum wage, like opposing immigration, is an easy win in the polls even if one knows that both positions are almost certainly harmful to one's constituents.

    Doesn't change the facts
I understood you to mean that the numbers were massaged to increase the out-of-work number to half a million, is that right? I was surprised to see a dot-gov source publish findings against minimum wage at all, and respect the fact that they express a wide range of uncertainty, describing "a two-thirds chance that the effect would be in the range between a very slight reduction in employment and a reduction in employment of 1.0 million workers."
user-inactivated  ·  3991 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Then let's settle on 'we' being 'people who are familiar with the right economic ideas'.

    Obviously this is important, unfortunately. Supporting minimum wage, like opposing immigration, is an easy win in the polls even if one knows that both positions are almost certainly harmful to one's constituents.

Precisely. I can't envision a future scenario in which the minimum wage would be summarily abolished. I'm sure there is one, but it strikes me as outside the realm of foreseeable possibility.

As for the latter, yes, that's what I meant. I understood the source I can't find to mean that the actual increase in unemployment would probably be less than 500k (though it certainly could be up to a million within the margin of error the CBO reported). By doesn't change the facts I meant: "the $10.10 number will still obviously hurt employment to some degree."