From Engine of Evolution:
In the 15th century a new trajectory of diversification developed, probably catalyzed by the invention of the printing press, a device which increased the resources of government enormously.
Laws, for example, could be circulated far more widely and more accurately than ever before. But more important still was the fact that the printing press increased the size of the educated and literate classes. Renaissance civilization thus took a quantum jump, acquiring deeper foundations than any of its predecessors or contemporaries by calling into play the intelligence of more individuals than ever before. But the catch (from a ruler's point of view) was that this development also brought public opinion into being for the first time. Not for much longer would it be enough for kings to win the acquiscence of the nobility and the upper clergy; a new force was at work, as was acknowledged by the frantic attempts of all the monarchies to control and censor the press.
It was towards the end of the 18th century that the dominant form of government turned 'national', and people were educated in their own mother tongue; not in languages of other civilizations and other times. Societal control became characterized by large, heterogeneous, internally differentiated class structures, a manifestation quite extraordinary in history.
--- ME:
Today, communication medium is different (i.e., Internet not Printing Press). Today, the political system is different (i.e., Industrial Democratic not Monarchy). But the system pattern is identical (except ours is happening faster because we can communicate faster and we're operating in a more decentralized system). So the current popular dissent we're expressing will likely manifest itself in a new political system, but not before we get new energy, just like the previous transition. Once we have new energy (and more energy), we'll have more decentralized power, and with more decentralized power, we will be able to restructure the current system.
- So the current popular descent we're expressing will likely manifest itself in a new political system, but not before we get new energy, just like the previous transition.
What about simply de-centralized energy? With a solar roof and geothermal, I can build a house off of the grid here in Michigan. Residential solar has taken a dramatic shift where upfront costs are covered by companies such as Solar City, and customers pay off the investment and still save over utility power. It's now being wrapped into mortgages, where the cost of the mortgage on a new construction actually decreases if you put a solar roof in it.
I recently posted an article about a utility company's resistance to the surge in consumer-side production in Hawaii. Just imagine when those households all have EVs.
I think the energy transition is already happening. I have a couple of houses on my block that are basically off of the grid.
Yes, you're right. We won't just have new and more energy, but that energy will be controlled on an increasingly individual (decentralized) scale. I think there will be some control - but just not as centralized as our current infrastructure. The current transition is already happening. It is emergent in the same way the Internet was emergent in the 1980s and early 1990s. But it hasn't reached that critical mass and diffusion yet like the Internet did from 1995-2005. Soon it will. And then we will get the institutional change we want and need.
EDIT:
Energy is everything. The rest is detail.
- Energy is everything.
Futurists talk about "Type 1 Civilizations" and "Type 2 Civilizations." I don't think those labels will apply. Energy doesn't "go away" when we use it. It simply turns into a form that's less usable. I think we'll eventually figure out how to recapture all "waste" energy. Hence, the energy available will be effectively limitless. Energy will no longer be a limiting factor, for anything.
I think we'll reach that stage long before we would otherwise reach Type 2 on the Kardashev scale. It may even be engendered by the AI Singularity.
Disclaimer: I'm a software engineer, not a mechanical engineer or a physicist.
- I think there will be an Energy Singularity, just like the predicted AI Singularity.
Agreed. This is really the point I am trying to emphasize - and have tried to emphasize in my talks about Global Brain. We can't have a singularity or a global brain without "energy singularity" (if you want to call it that). We don't get abundance and unlimited opportunity without exploiting a new and sustainable energy source. All of the "neurons" in our "global brain" require enough energy to function adequately (and by adequately I mean they should be able to do whatever they want - whenever they want (as long as they don't harm another consciousness)).
Disclaimer: I want to smash things when I think about the Koch brothers.
Interesting that shortly after this discussion I found this article:
- SolarCity wants to raise billions of dollars in capital—from you
If they are able to use individual investor money to fund the installation of panels, it will quicken the pace of solar installations even more.
Whenever I see the changes occurring within our system caused by emerging tech, I can't help but think that all of these crazy future scenarios we discuss are much closer to major system changes than even radical predictions suggest.
One thought that came to me last night was that our predictions for a system change may be conservative because our years are getting shorter. All this means is that more changes in a year. And by change I mean that more gets done. Our system is getting increasingly efficient. Our global conversations are happening at increasingly fast paces. And all too often people don't really factor in "the ratchet" or exponential change. When I see that Watson is now going open-source and developers are going to be able to use Watson to build all types of "Watson-apps" related to education, economics, etc. and when I see that smart phone and tablet penetration in the developing world is likely to reach full penetration before 2020... I can't help but think about the power that will be in all of our hands. Not-to-mention all of these devices will have very smart operating systems in the 2020s. Everyone will have a great doctor. Everyone will have a great teacher. And they will all learn with us and consequently be personally tailored to our needs.
Basically, shits about to go down.
EV surely is a nice complement for the private household but comparing that to the surge which coal brought to society is a bit over the top. Fusion could be something as revolutionary. It is fine and dandy to live off the grid as a single household, it is a whole different thing if you are talking about industry. They mostly need huge amounts of power 24/7. That is something Solar and wind are not capable of delivering. Geothermal is only viable in some specific places. With wind and solar you always need something to fall back on and that is typically gas or coal. All those servers and serverfarms also want to stay online 24/7.
Also electricty generation is only about a quarter of all the energy a society consumes. Also I never heard anything about decentrealized geothermal plant. Those drilling operations for a geothermal plant aren't exactly cheap. I don't see your concept hapenning anywhere in the forseeable future.
I would say that the world became more centralized with the emergence of national states. Industry became more centralized. Cities grew and grow further still. Scientific, industrial and societal structures became bigger and bigger. Today we have multinational companies. Researchers from all over the world working on huge projects. Much of our technologie is impossible to research, create and maintain without cooperation in huge centralized organizations. The information is much more easy to tranfer may make in some cases make the physical attendance less and less important but this does not negate the need for centralized structures. I would argue that we are still lightyears aways from a revolution you imagine.
Also a free flow of information does not automatically mean it will be used. Without any guidance many people just will use it to validate their most baseless believes. The speed and freedom of transfer and creation of information might also lead to magnify the effects of fearmongering and propaganda. The emerging media at his time helped hitler a great bit.
All in all I'm much more pessimistic. But we'll see. The Weltgeist will materialize ;)....