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johnnyFive  ·  2712 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Dow's record highs mask deeper troubles

Doesn't the fact that it's those specific four (two banks, a home materials company, and a construction (among others) equipment manufacturer) suggest that people are getting ready to start building and buying again? Bear with me please as I think this through.

I was going to say that this implies an expectation of increased home prices, but I think it's better to say that it implies an increased value in real estate, which isn't necessarily the same thing. The crash of 2008 showed pretty clearly that the market can have an interest in improperly pricing some things (or can do so out of stupidity). This in theory could be consistent with what you're saying--if interest rates are expected to rise and housing prices are expected to drop, this could mean investors expect more demand for real estate. Even if people can buy less house for the same amount of money, I'd be curious to know to what extent seeing lower "sticker" prices on real estate influences demand.

But U.S. real estate is also used as a form of savings by rich Chinese. Perhaps, then, those four companies being the winners, again assuming it implies an impending increase in construction, could mean there's the expectation of even more (or at least continued) foreign investment in this regard. Of the two things I've suggested, I find this to be more likely.

And it's a good thing. I want the Chinese, especially the Chinese ruling class, to have a vested interest in our continued stability, both economic and material.