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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  4161 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: F'd: How the U.S. and Its Allies Got Stuck with the World's Worst New Warplane

Yeah, thanks for that. I hadn't really thought of the VTOL aspect of any Marines-linked plane as being related to Guadalcanal, despite the fact that it was also used as justification for the V-22 Osprey (and, when pressed during congressional hearings back in the '90s, was the only justification the USMC could come up with). That criticism aside, the article doesn't really go in depth into what a boondoggle aviation contracting has become, pretty much since WWII.

It's in the numbers - the J35 is a direct payout of 400 billion dollars. By way of comparison, we've paid out $17 billion on Hurricane Katrina. At that point, it's a jobs program. The Soviet Union was the same way - GDP was pretty much military spending... I mean, this program is fully half the cost of the Iraq War. When you're dealing with a budget like that, it isn't so much about what the plane will do as who the plane will feed. As far as their criticisms of its airworthyness, to be truly fair they're wargaming numbers, based on assumptions. Could the plane be better than advertised? Sure. Could it be worse? Undoubtedly. Is there any real possibility of an air war with China over Taiwan? Fuck no. Is that the most plausible air superiority conflict for the JSF involving the United States? Yes indeedy. Does that point to the superfluous nature of the entire program? Yes and no.

The last true air superiority fighter the US built was the F15. We've been flying it so long that we've grounded the fleet several times because their wings are about to fall off. They've been undisputed in the sky - none have ever been shot down - and over half of their kills were racked up by the Israelis, who use them against dirty brown air forces in the Persian Gulf. Will the Israelis buy F35s? Probably. And they'll get modifications as they always do, because they're a client, and those modifications will likely include reconfiguration to bring it closer to what it oughtta be, and everyone will get rich. And should those dirty brown air forces clamor for hot iron, they won't get PAK FAs they'll get SU-35s(see also: monkey model and that way we can pretend to be mad at Russia but we'll all still make money.

I could write more. I could write pages more. But what it really comes down to is if the armed forces bought what they needed instead of what they wanted it'd be all Tomahawks and UAVs, all the time. We've built 1100 F15s. We've built 4,500 F16s. We can deploy a tiny fraction of that to any theater- the whole wargame that got the author all pissed off supposed 35 F35s. Frankly, we could just reheat the shit we got and expect total air superiority well into 2100. Anyone who doubts me has never been to Davis Monthan. Zoom out. I dare ya.

Dunno. It all just makes me tired.





BlackBird  ·  4161 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I don't blame you that it makes you tired. I have to admit, you have a lot more knowledge on the topic than I do. Frankly, it pains me to see that technological wonders/developments have taken a backseat to quibbling/contracts/politics; you would think the JSF would be a pinnacle if development and yet, it isn't, and won't be.

I note though, your mention that Israel will be able to spec/add enhancements to suit their needs; have there been any (public/leaked) disclosures that indicate other nations will be able to do the same?

kleinbl00  ·  4161 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Whenever you're dealing with something expensive and single-buyer, you're going to see quibbling and politics. There's a reason the export market for US arms tends to be the lower-budget stuff; it actually has to compete on the world market against BAE, Dassault, Sukhoi, etc. That's why we're still making F16s.

As to the Israeli modification bit, that was speculation on my part based on the fact that the Israelis almost never buy or fly stock gear. They even fuck with F16s, one of the most bare-bones, straight-up general purpose fighters ever built. Will other countries be able to wield such changes? No idea. Not sure other countries will be able to afford F35s. The flyaway cost of an F35 is likely to be somewhere a little south of $200m without subsidies, in which case who knows? The flyaway cost of an F16, by comparison, is around $20m. In other words, one F35 is as much as a squadron of F16s... or a flight of Sukhoi Su-35s. But that's okay- Israel receives more military aid from the US than all other countries in the world combined, and they're on the docket for 75 of the things already.

Now would be a great time to watch Deal of the Century.