Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something.

Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on.

Rich kids can afford many throws. If they want to, they can try over and over and over again until they hit something and feel good about themselves. Some keep going until they hit the center bullseye, then they give speeches or write blog posts about "meritocracy" and the salutary effects of hard work.

Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.

I have a friend who came up to visit from Portland fifteen, twenty years ago. In another life we're married. In this one she has cats. She was talking about her friends who, much like my friends, tend to get into all sorts of scrapes. I kept using the phrase "unlucky" and at some point she said "there's unlucky and there's sucking at life. You miss one interview that's unlucky. You miss four? It's no longer luck."

I have been reflecting on the lives I haven't lead, the traps I avoided, the preposterous number of things that had to go right for me to be here. If I'd lived the way my sister does I'd have been dead by 19. So I don't think it's just throwing darts. But right now? A lot of Hollywood is being written by my friends, by my colleagues, by the "screenwriting gurus" that were hustling for a little Amazon side money while also grading papers for the University of Phoenix or making sandwiches for Panera. Success is being in the right place at the right time and the longer you can stay in the right place, the more likely it is to be the right time and fuckkn' hell I pretty much gave up on that shit in 2009 and they're getting credits now? I made more in a day mixing internals for Apple than SyFy pays their screenwriters for feature films.

Ben Horowitz is illustrative. He never got the support or buy-in necessary to become Eminem. He clearly regrets that. He has to be a venture capitalist instead. There's another finance guy who talks more about his club DJ sessions than any particular positions he's opened or closed. By and large, we do what we're supported to do. Tim Draper is a venture capitalist, just like his father and grandfather before him, and so are his children.

Rich kids can afford many throws.