Hard to say. I've read from the diviners that the reason they let Xi have a third term was that he promised Taiwan within the 5 years of his term. But I think the thing that will keep it safe is the thing that has kept it safe for the past 75 years, which is the Taiwan straight. Hong Kong never stood a chance, but in the end, Honk Kong is attached to mainland China, belonged legally to mainland China, had to defenses to speak of, and isn't that much of a strategic interest of the US. Taiwan has the opposite situation in all of those aspects. And it has a population who may mount a formidable resistance.

If you're Taiwan and you were thinking about a peaceable soft reunification with China, the way they railroaded Hong Kong has you rethinking that pretty hard. There are probably a lot of people who have been swayed in recent years to never trust the CCP and won't ben willing participants in their takeover. Quelling an insurgency from across a small ocean is no small feat, even with a formidable facial recognition apparatus.