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Asimov cribbed it from Toynbee, who did the World History Magnum Opus before the Durants but after JG Frazer. "Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder." He wrote 12 volumes to prove his point. The quote is at the beginning of Volume 4, which I have around here somewhere, but haven't quite been able to stomach. Of course, the thought wasn't original to him, either, nor Thomas Cole, Nor Gibbon.