No state by state analysis for me, there are only two possible outcomes as far as I can tell. 1) The election follows current polling trends relatively closely and Obama wins by a decisive (though not exactly large) margin. Or 2) the Republicans can disenfranchise groups likely to vote Democrat through voter ID laws, ballot shortages, or what-have-you, and enough Republicans are energized and able to get to the polls that Romney wins by a small margin. The aftermath of which drags on for weeks or months in the courts until the establishment decides it's time to get past the petty partisanship and support our new president Romney.
"the Republicans can disenfranchise groups likely to vote Democrat through voter ID laws, ballot shortages, or what-have-you, and enough Republicans are energized and able to get to the polls that Romney wins by a small margin" What proof do you have that this is happening? I would argue that both the Right and the Left are going to do all they can to keep their opponents at home come election day. Both sides will point fingers. May the best candidate win and that candidate is Willard Mitt Romney.