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comment by user-inactivated
user-inactivated  ·  1479 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Saudi Arabia Stuns World With Massive Discount In Oil Sold To Asia, Europe And U.S.

Like, legit? I hate the Black Swan argument and I've only known about it for about a week. It's people's way of saying "we didn't see this coming, so it's not our fault, so it's not fair to get mad at us." I'm glad you used the forest fire analogy, because I was gonna use it myself. You can't build houses in a forest and not expect them to be at risk of fire. You can't develop in a flood plain and not expect to be at risk of a flood. You can't build on a seaside cliff and not expect to fall to erosion. For the stock market? Don't pay for stocks for more than they're practically worth. For businesses, don't dance with debt you can't pay back.

I don't know what everyone is thinking, but I'll tell you this. Spring is hiring season and between coronavirus and a possible recession, my prospects of getting a new job just turned south.





kleinbl00  ·  1478 days ago  ·  link  ·  

And so it begins:

    Who could predict the exact chain of events set off by the coronavirus that leads us to the circumstances that we face today? Besides the public health and economic crisis, would anyone have considered that this would also turn into a geopolitical crisis? Russia is attempting to use this critical moment to its own advantage, and the collapse of the Russian-OPEC alliance—precipitated by Russia’s goal of killing off the U.S. shale industry—has turned into an all-out price war that is causing chaos in the energy markets.

Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Investments

user-inactivated  ·  1478 days ago  ·  link  ·  

. . . yeah. I'm in the process of spring cleaning to destress. The markets had an upswing this morning and now they're back down and I'm just uncomfortable so I'm trying to control what I can, which isn't much.

I consoled myself this morning, that if I don't find a new job, I'll keep this job and then start slamming money into my 401k when the market recovers. Which is saying something, cause I think they're fed not by markets, but misery, including mine. But if I'm gonna be miserable, might as well make money off of it. I'll fight for every hour, every penny I can, just to feed it.

Two anecdotes. On Saturday I was talking to a friend of mine who's just past old enough to drink, telling them I've been doing math trying to figure out how I'm gonna be able to survive 60plus financially, if I even live that long. They asked if I figured anything out. I said "Yeah, I should have started when I was your age." The other day, I did a checkup call on my mother. We were talking jobs and retirement and she said I shouldn't bother, because by the time I'm her age nothing will be worth anything. She was joking, of course. Then Friday and Monday and Today happened and suddenly my mother's joke isn't funny anymore.

Nero fiddled while Rome burned. I don't have a fiddle or a city-state to look after. So I guess I'll shred junk mail and chastise myself for buying more fabric than I'll probably need for the next five years. I found a really crappy jacket though, all torn up, I might turn it into a project, so I have that going for me.

kleinbl00  ·  1479 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah hospitality is going to get kicked in the nuts which means retail is going to get kicked in the nuts which means commercial real estate is going to get kicked in the nuts which means banking is going to get kicked in the nuts which means we're in a recession we just don't know how bad yet.

I'll say this: 60 million people in industrial China were under lockdown for a month. There's going to be an impact from that. Everyone was going "we don't know yet" while also going "buy STONKS!" Presume China contained CV19 entirely. That could easily have been enough of a spark. Instead Italy has been cancelled through the beginning of April. 8th-largest GDP in the world.

user-inactivated  ·  1479 days ago  ·  link  ·  

How much is America's economy propped up by consumer spending? Like, all of it? I can't imagine, if people aren't gonna go to work and get paid, or even if they get paid but they don't go out, this is gonna be a real hard recession to turn around just for that. I'm worried. Not about the stocks mind you, but about people. Recessions hurt.

kleinbl00  ·  1479 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    How much is America's economy propped up by consumer spending? Like, all of it?

An interesting question.

Most. As it turns out, most.