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There's fortunately a big swing between "do you approve of the President" and "do you approve of the President enough to vote for him and everything on his slate." This is what all the "defense of marriage" bills at the state level were about in 2006: Turdblossom knew that "the base" was willing to sign lipservice to what Bush had going on but not enough to go out to the polls so they threw in the "do you hate fags? Because we hate fags" bills to get 'em out for the midterms. He spent 2006 between 30 and 45% approval. I don't think acquittal of Trump even matters. What we're really watching is the life cycle of populism. And I can guarantee you that McConnell & Co are gonna catch every Pokemon before they leave the field voluntarily.