Share good ideas and conversation.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  300 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: December 26, 2018

Go here. Logged in, logged out, doesn't matter. Take a look at what you see. Chances are good some of it is relevant to you, some of it is not, some of it makes sense, some of it is nonsense. Get comfortable with the material and move on.

Now go here. Logged in, logged out, doesn't matter. Take a look at what you see. Chances are good some of it seems relevant to you, some of it doesn't, some of it seems to make sense, some of it is clearly Bunuel-grade surrealism.

You've gotten pretty good at figuring out what's going to get the most points on the first page. You're a veteran. You've seen some highs, you've seen some lows, you know what people like. That second page, though, doesn't make a lot of sense. Kinda looks like a bunch of idiot children arguing with each other in a language not their own. The problem is, though, in order to make a living you've bet on which posts will go up and which posts will go down. And slowly but surely, the first page has turned into the second.

That's the stock market.

The reality is so much worse than the analogy, though. For starters, you aren't just making a living, you're trying to keep pension funds afloat. You're attempting to beat the rest of the market. If you don't make your percentage then Sacramento goes bankrupt. And odds-on you've only been on the job for about six years so you don't really remember a time before the bots.

Pretend three of twenty posts on /r/subredditsimulator are by humans. Pretend three of twenty posters on /r/subreddit simulator are humans. Three of twenty voters. All the rest is Cleverbot. The Goldman Sachs cleverbot. The JP Morgan Chase cleverbot. The BlackRock cleverbot. Or, more accurately their server farms. Are they still voting on reality? Or are they voting on an algorithmic ideal of a number series? Which number series? Weighted how, exactly?

There was a time when "the market" held "quants" in distrust. They understood math, therefore they were suspect. They did not generally drink themselves to oblivion before 1pm, therefore they were nerds. And then they started inventing derivatives and mathematical constructs and instruments that made money when money was being lost and a primitive animism set in. And now the quants are high priests in the Order of AI and even if the people doing the programming understand the scam, they're not going to say anything. Far better to be worshipped as a god than sacrificed as an infidel.

(they're playing polo with a human head BTW)

Yesterday, Japan said "quick sell everything while Americans are sleeping" and the Nikkei dropped 5%. $300b up in smoke. Then a guy named "Mnuchin", whose principal contribution to society up to this point was giving Brett Ratner money, said "Trump's not actually going to fire a guy he has no authority to fire" and the Markov bots bought $500b worth of stock.

So the humans bought another $100b.

I am Jack's cold sweat.