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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  311 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality

Yeah I just had this pointed out to me this morning. Need to crank through it. For comparison's sake, McKinsey's similar study and 1966's Technology and the American Economy.

I'm a little doubtful as to Bain's conclusions. Here's the McKinsey:

    In the 1960s, US President Lyndon Johnson empaneled a “National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress.” Among its conclusions was “the basic fact that technology destroys jobs, but not work.”

McKinsey argued that the key was retraining, and a lot of it. It's possible that the Bain presumes there will be none in which case, yeah, it's gonna be shitty.




keifermiller  ·  311 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I made it to the end!

They think we'll botch retraining.

    While the pace of technological change is arguably accelerating, we have seen no evidence yet that the rate of human adaptation to jarring economic dislocations has improved. If anything, the experience of the two recent US recessions points in the opposite direction—an aging labor force is becoming less able to learn new skills and find work. The demographic outlook for the next decades suggests that the labor force's speed of adjustment to disruptions might actually worsen.

...

    Our base-case scenario forecasts an acute shortage of highly skilled, high-income workers in the 2020s as investment in automation technologies takes off. Over time, workers will acquire new skills and migrate toward the jobs in demand. However, shifts of this nature take a considerable amount of time.
kleinbl00  ·  311 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    They think we'll botch retraining.

"That's certainly the safest bet," said the guy who just Gantt charted 300 credits across 4 years so he wouldn't have to give up his old job before his new one was ready.

So. Having read both the LBJ special and the McKinsey should I bother?

user-inactivated  ·  311 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    should I bother

I have to be up for work in five hours and I just got done looking at a bunch of skinks on Wikimedia for the past half hour or so to try and get me tired and it's not working and so I don't know if I'm reading what you're asking right. If I am though, man, I'd rant right now.

If you can do it without risking your finances, your job, or your family life, shit yes you should. At the very least, it'd make you a bigger you in ways you can only begin to imagine. You're looking at school to learn skills, expand yourself. It's not like you're thinking about taking yoga or signing up for Crossfit. ::Sheesh::

kleinbl00  ·  311 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Lol I meant should I read the Bain ;-)

Not only is the 'should I bother changing careers' question one I wouldn't trust to random d00ds on the internet, but I've arranged it so I'm three whole years before I have to decide. Thanks for the concern, though!

PS reading economic reports will put your ass to sleep right quick

user-inactivated  ·  311 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Good. I'm too tired to even properly express my relief right now.

keifermiller  ·  311 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Skimming the first bit of the McKinsey, I feel like you can probably guess what Bain has to say. Every time McKinsey says things could go well, just assume that it doesn't.

The gist I got of their roadmap is that they think there is a good chance we'll Boom (capital investments, increased productivity), Bust (wage depression, pension crisis, unemployment, slow retraining), and that the Government will then get hands on again.

I skipped over some of the "here's how your leadership teams can prepare for the future in the exciting WORLD OF BUSINESS" bits, so I might have missed something but I don't think so.