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comment by blackbootz
blackbootz  ·  2430 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: An *actual* North Korea expert on the odds of a North Korean nuclear strike

I seriously want to study abroad in Seoul the spring semester of 2018. I'm scared that I'm willfully walking into a future war zone. I've heard both that this sort of saber-rattling is going on 50 years and I've heard that things are as untenable and unstable as they'll ever get with the current administration. I guess your and Mr. Hecker's point is that alarmism is clouding all sober discussion of the potential of armed conflict. Will continue deliberating.





kleinbl00  ·  2430 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The principle destabilization in the North Korean conflict is that North Korea's chief adversary is guided by neophytes at the moment. Which is not to say there aren't hundreds/thousands of capable apparatchiks on the problem as always, but when they are expected to execute the policy decisions of people with an aggressive incuriousness towards the problem they are limited in their response.

From a game theory perspective, North Korea's move is to bluff the Trump administration into thinking that they're a big, nasty problem most easily solved by the lifting of sanctions, the granting of aid and the extension of national prestige. That the Trump administration's response seems to hinge on whingeing that the Chinese aren't doing enough (and then initiating a run-up to trade sanctions against them as a consequence) illustrates, to me at least, that their madman is outplaying our madman by a handy margin. The endgame on this will be China and the US flirting with/skirmishing about a trade war and North Korea transmitting the notion that they will enact some detente in order to more closely align with US/South Korean interests in exchange for shit-tons of cash and aid. Trump gets to look like a diplomat, Kim gets to show North Koreans that he has broken the back of the Imperialists and the IAEA/DOE get their inspectors back in to say "yup, they could easily have a missile-ready 30kT atomic warhead by 2025, way to go Bush administration."

Based on the rhetoric we could have war in Gibraltar. That's the point of rhetoric. You get your blood out during the figurative stage where it costs nothing to spill.