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It's the former. For clarity, I've made a map for each phenomenon: NM has become less diverse and has moved to the left. (Note: I've defined diversity as 'not being white'.) If you were to make the argument that more diversity led to a reactionary vote for Trump, the collorary (less diversity means less movement to the right) is also important, so both blue and red parts of the hotspot map support that argument. However, this is only correlation and not causation.