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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Implication of Sabotage Adds Intrigue to Space-X Investigation

'k I'll play.

FIM-92C stinger missile, manufactured in California by Lockheed missile partners General Dynamics/Raytheon since 1978. 60" long, 33lbs weight, 6lb warhead, effective range 5 miles, terminal velocity Mach 2.5. Unit cost $38k, "hundreds unaccounted for" since the fall of Afghanistan.

Note: I'm not saying the ULA fired a stinger missile at SpaceX. They're... conspicuous.

But ruling out malfeasance via physics is a facile exercise. I mean yeah - Prolly wasn't a Parrot AR. But "we saw something suspicious a mile away" isn't crazytalk.





user-inactivated  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

XM500 is 10K has a range of 2000 yards, looks like a security firearm to a layman. And lot easier to fire from a not-as-visible position. And the projectile does not leave a vapor trail. And easier to clean up after and hide the weapon.

Again, this is possible, but is it probable? More likely than not, with billions on the line, any interested party is going to go the lobbyist route as that path is:

a. legal

b. less risk

c. more likely to end up with a positive result.

Shit like sabotage does not stay secret and is subject to blow back and other negative externalities. It is neat to think of this as a sabotage story and all, but I don't buy it.

kleinbl00  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

For the record, I think it's stupendously improbable. Ockham's Razor is not fond of the idea of ULA shooting at SpaceX. However, am_ was making the point that the physics don't support it, and my argument is that the physics support the shit out of it.

user-inactivated  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Ockham's Razor is not fond of the idea of ULA shooting at SpaceX.

Agreed. Hell if we want to get all conspiracy theory, it is more likely that ULA is working in the background to make people pressure SpaceX to do more, faster, than they are comfortable with and that rush is allowing small errors to slip into the processes. Now ULA, through no direct action on its own can go to Congress and say "See, they are moving too quickly and blowing up rockets!"

Still, it is fun to think of a sniper on a building taking a shot. Totally improbable, but hell Tom Clancy build a fortune on this type of What-If.

kleinbl00  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    it is more likely that ULA is working in the background to make people pressure SpaceX to do more, faster, than they are comfortable with and that rush is allowing small errors to slip into the processes.

By all published accounts, Elon Musk considers this his personal mission.

user-inactivated  ·  2732 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The cash-cannon 5000 is now loaded up and the congress critters are starting to get their PR running. Coffman gets money from satellite manufacturers.

user-inactivated  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So I know a few people who work for SpaceX (fewer than who work for Telsa), and they didn't have a harder time getting in than any other fashionable tech company. They had engineering degrees from the right schools and they acted like they read TechCrunch, Wired and Fast Company regularly without either hurting themselves laughing or loosing their lunch, and they got the job. If I had deep pockets and wanted to sabotage SpaceX I wouldn't do it by having someone fire a missile or something, I'd find an employee in the right position smart enough not to have dunk the kool-aid and senior enough to be tired of it and pay them never-have-to-deal-with-this-bullshit-ever-again-plus-worth-the-risk-of-jail-time money to throw a wooden shoe in somewhere. Much more expensive than $38k, but much more likely to go unnoticed.

kleinbl00  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I also know a few people at SpaceX and I don't disagree with your assessment of their security. At the same time, you're arguing that avoiding a paper trail through whatever unknown internal security and document control is going to be easier than taking some sort of pot-shot from outside the control zone of a launchpad.

The difference might be that I've been at the edge of the control zone of a launchpad and can say with no quaver in my voice that it's eaaaaaaaaaaaasy to get as much big bulky crap as you could possibly want right up to the perimeter.

user-inactivated  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I base my assumptions about internal security on a friend from high school who works at Daimler as an engineer now, who has been justly praised for her efficiency because, unknown to her employers, she gets her job done by 'sploiting her way around their draconian but incompetent IT department and avoids hoop-jumping and paper trails entirely. I know this because I've provided a few pointers for 'sploiting her way around The Process. She, unlike everyone else I know of our vintage, still cares about the best interest of her employer. She's both morally superior and more a sucker than all of us, but that's beside the point. I don't believe internal security and document control would be much of an obstacle at all.

kleinbl00  ·  2735 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I would never underestimate the paranoia of a man who (a) idolizes Robert Heinlein (b) was shafted out of Paypal by Peter Thiel.

It has been my experience that there's the paper trail, then there's the sneaky shit you don't even know about.