Either my memory isn't what it used to be, or my history teacher mislead me on Dewey and Truman. Either is possible really. And the poll numbers reflect this. I agree. The chances of Trump winning is so slim, it would take a perfect storm of bullshit and mistakes for something like that to happen. All of that hinges on people not taking the time out of their day to go out and vote though. I kind of view it as a reverse lottery or something, where there's a one in a million chance where something will go wrong if you don't buy the ticket.Trump's actions are entirely negative. He is an oppositional candidate. But at the end of the day, people vote for a president, not against a president, even if that's what they think they're doing. And while there are plenty of people out there who are all about an anybody-but-Hillary presidency, there are more that want to do more than watch the world burn.
It was a case of things being too close to call, early prognostications being wrong, and a major newspaper (ONE major newspaper) jumping the gun on one edition (ONE edition). It's more of a "Gore beats Bush" situation than a Goldwater-grade blowout. It was an upset, to be sure, but Truman wasn't coming back from 9 points down in the polls.