I think the House of Saud lives in petrifying fear of a Muqtada al Sadr. Of an ibn Taymiyyah. Of an Abd al-Wahab. The House of Saud has been buying baubles for the rich and sops for the poor but one charismatic fundamentalist interested in burning out the impurities and the fat Benz drivers running things now are going to do a poor impression of TE Lawrence's nobles. I think, in many ways, they dwell in a cage of their own creation, which is one reason they frolic abroad so much.

I think Netanyahu made a grave misstep when he aligned himself with the GOP against Obama. Traditionally, Israelis practice skullduggery. Traditionally, democrats practice skullduggery. Traditionally, Republicans go boots on ground and get mired in grand adventures and every time the Israelis roll out the troops they lose face and influence. Boots-on-ground in the Middle East right now is a fuckin' mess while skullduggery runs the world.

Iran views Israel as an unfortunate historical anomaly, but they also celebrate "Death to America Day" and they seem to be able to overlook that in the interests of capitalism. I think now that they no longer need an Ahmadinejad, they're going to return to pragmatism. Iran is repressive and hidebound but Iran remains staunchly Persian. Fully a third of Saudi Arabia is foreigners and most of them hate being there. Iran is in zero danger of an uprising at the moment while Saudi Arabia...

...well, my money's on the Persians.