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comment by mk
mk  ·  3018 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The American middle class is no longer the majority

3) Yes, given that you'd expect social security income to bolster the middle class rather than deplete it, it might have the opposite effect to the one proposed.





wasoxygen  ·  3018 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I am going to give up and fall back on my initial protest that there are better things to discuss. Think about it scientifically, and ask: What question does this analysis answer? What are we trying to learn? We are not trying to answer any of these questions:

Are people doing better or worse today than before?

Is life getting better or worse for the poorest people?

Are typical individuals in the population seeing improvement?

The question we are trying to answer is more like this:

How have the membership counts in arbitrary demographic blocs changed over time, relative to each other?

We are discussing changes in the shape of the bell curve, while ignoring the fact that the bell itself is moving and growing.

As if someone asked you about the home team's season, and you said "compared to last year, they scored more points in the first and last quarters of their games, and fewer near halftime."

mk  ·  3017 days ago  ·  link  ·  

As I said elsewhere in this post, IMO both the shape and the place of the bell-curve are probably worth discussing.

Personally, I suspect that the shape itself isn't as important as mobility, but that the shape of the curve and mobility may be related at times to different degrees. If there is insult of disparity, then surely the possibility to move from the lower strata to the higher one reduces the sting. And, due to some evolutionary oddity of our brains, a little bit of this goes a long way. IMO the US has long benefited from a worship of economic transcendence.

There's that quote (mis-attributed to Steinbeck) that pokes fun at Americans:

    "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires."

It's a funny cultural observation, but when your soldiers have irrationally high morale, you win more battles.

To be clear, I agree that disparity isn't an injustice; at least I suspect that you don't count it as one. However, I do see an increase in disparity coincident with a decrease in mobility as symptom of something that won't end well.

My sense is that due to the influence of money on law, there may be a trend in the US towards systems that preserve wealth and prevent mobility at the expense of a greater economic growth. That is, the change in the shape of the bell curve is slowing its shift to the right. To me, this would be a real concern.

Here's a horrible thought: What if the hope of economic mobility is not fueled by an absolute rate of mobility, but instead by the sign of the change in that rate? What if the the shape of the bell curve doesn't matter, but the eventual shape that its current change suggests that does?