This is something that I have been casually watching.
In a nutshell, there is the worry that when people want to sell their bonds, there won't be buyers, which will force deeper discounts, which will induce more people to unload their bonds, which will end with dogs and cats sleeping together.
There is a growing consensus that the Fed is going to raise rates for the first time in forever next month. This could be the pin that pricks the bond bubble. Or, maybe the fear of a hike will be enough if people start sitting down before the music stops.
I wonder how big of a deal the CDS's on these bonds is. Big enough to repeat what happened to AIG?
As businesses have been issuing bonds to pay dividends or buy back stocks, I expect this will effect equities.
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." -James Carville Who knows? No one knew how big of a deal it was to AIG until it was a big deal. The real scary thing is that the balance sheets of the biggest banks are out of control, fueled largely by bonds, short term loans to other financial institutions, and derivatives (CDS and CDO). Deutsche Bank, for example, is the largest bank in the world by balance sheet. Its total deposits are something like $400 billion. Its total balance sheet is about $55 trillion. So, yeah, it's a big deal, and a house of cards, but who knows when the wind will blow it over.I wonder how big of a deal the CDS's on these bonds is. Big enough to repeat what happened to AIG?
$55 trillion is just shy of a billion gazillion. Today Yellen said that more research was needed on unconventional monetary policies that central banks around the world deployed in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. We talk about Keynesian economics, but there is this massive derivative ogre that is ready to gobble up or vomit back out far more than can fit at the table.
--JK Galbraith The bezzle, as I understand it, is the difference in the perceived value and actual value of some commodity; it need not be applied solely in relation to actual embezzlement, for which it was originally coined. The bezzle in the derivative markets is really, really big. The perceived value of Deutsche Bank's $55 trillion balance sheet is obviously false, given that the national incomes of the entire G7 come to slightly more than half that number, and Deutsche represents one of several institutions whose balance sheets are in the tens of trillions. Mind boggling.“In many ways the effect of the crash on embezzlement was more significant than on suicide. To the economist embezzlement is the most interesting of crimes. Alone among the various forms of larceny it has a time parameter. Weeks, months or years may elapse between the commission of the crime and its discovery. (This is a period, incidentally, when the embezzler has his gain and the man who has been embezzled, oddly enough, feels no loss. There is a net increase in psychic wealth.) At any given time there exists an inventory of undiscovered embezzlement in – or more precisely not in – the country’s business and banks. This inventory – it should perhaps be called the bezzle – amounts at any moment to many millions of dollars. It also varies in size with the business cycle. In good times people are relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. But even though money is plentiful, there are always many people who need more. Under these circumstances the rate of embezzlement grows, the rate of discovery falls off, and the bezzle increases rapidly. In depression all this is reversed. Money is watched with a narrow, suspicious eye. The man who handles it is assumed to be dishonest until he proves himself otherwise. Audits are penetrating and meticulous. Commercial morality is enormously improved. The bezzle shrinks.”
It's a common theme in these articles about bond market liquidity. I'm of the mind that regulation went half the distance and thus created a distortion. Of course, a lack of regulation wouldn't likely leave us with anything better. It seems an age old problem.