I agree on both parts. I think it's worth noting though that if the smart watch market blew up over night, the Apple Watch would ensure that Apple was in a decent position in the marketplace.
That is the issue though it seems like Apple is struggling to remain relevant in a quick moving environment. The smart watch hits the market, and it isn't until much later that Apple makes their own. Google is making the self-driving car and now the rumors of the Apple car arise. They aren't on the forefront of technology anymore they are simply riding out their brand until it is no longer a thing at least that's what I see.
Well, how do you explain companies like Google? I mean it is arguable that their business plan has always been expansive from the birth of the company, but they have managed to continuously push forward no matter the failure or success of the product/service. Even Microsoft with Windows 8 was looking to change their overall design, and it ultimately didn't fair to well, but Windows 10 (although its too early to tell) is being hailed as a great mix of old and new in terms of interface. I feel like Steve Jobs started something brilliant, and Apple just kind of rode his creation. Now they are in a position that if the magic of the iPhone branded products wears off they are pretty much done for.
I think for Google, they have always had a history of expansion and innovation in mind. Microsoft knows they need to change or risk becoming irrelevant. I think Apple is turning into the Microsoft of the early 2000s, slowly losing their edge but still too big to see it yet.