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kleinbl00  ·  98 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here

I mean let's look.

Your first listing sold after four months for 15% under ask. That price represents a 15% appreciation from 2019; that's borderline normal.

Your second listing is out of contract and listed for $100k more than it sold for 2 1/2 years ago. It's not gonna go for that and you know it - the reasonable price on that thing is probably $850k, which is probably what the contracted buyer offered once the inspection came back.

Your third listing probably has $100k of remodel in it. It's 2600sqft in Sheridan Beach within walking distance of 3rd place books - it also doesn't stink of flip, the owners are looking for a 100% profit after 10 years of holding, which isn't unreasonable and never has been.

Your fourth listing spent four months before dropping $50k and also hadn't moved for 20 years. Those guys? Those guys have my mortgage and it would make you cry if I told you what that fucker looks like. They've been in gravy since before the Great Recession and could have unloaded at any point - it's fair to say "around a million" is a durable market price for about 2000sqft around LFP.

That thing on Mercer Island rents for $6k a month because ain't nobody got the nut for 20% down anymore. You'll notice he's chasing the shit out of the market - fukka started at $8250 in September and errbody went "nah." Let's wargame his universe, shall we? He bought for $1.5m at prolly a 4.45, woulda been a jumbo so they would have required like 25% down. So he's in for $375k down. His mortgage is $5700/mo. Whatta ya think. Are his PMI and utilities more or less than $300 a month? I'll bet more.

That guy? He bought thirteen years ago and can't rent for what he's paying on it. Lemme just say that $6k a month rent is fucking bugshit even from a 2011 perspective and yet - we're at nope.

Here this'll make you feel better. This guy went way the fuck too fast for $2.3m. Now they're trying to rent it for $7500 a month. Whattaya think - if you can't get $6k on Mercer Island can you get $7500 in Kenmore? Survey says no.