How is your portfolio doing?

After losing $19.53 (31 shares) on my bet that Trump would utter the phrase "Crooked Hillary" at the first debate, I became a bit disillusioned with PredictIt.

I considered, since I was spending time looking at the markets anyway, maxing out on a position and trying to make some real money. A Clinton election win was trading in the low .70s, so a maximum stake of $850 at 73¢ would buy 1164 shares. These would pay, Deo volente, $1164, less the ten percent fee on profit, yielding almost $200 by November 9. That's over 23% profit in a month ... but the polls were awfully close in early October, and $850 is more money than I am comfortable risking. Maxing in that market today (at 83¢) would yield only $71.60.

So I am still growing my $50 in seed money. My $47 profit on Johnson's poll numbers was a lucky fluke; I made the same bet in the next round and lost, but fortunately only bought two shares at 24¢ since most of my funds were now long on Clinton.

I have 95 shares of DEM.PREZPRTY16 with an average price of 72¢. This stake is now up $10.42, and I plan to let it ride.

Meanwhile I find that putting something on the line makes the debates less horrifying to watch, so I have 11 shares of No in Will Clinton and Trump shake hands before the UNLV debate? (average price 39¢ each, position up $0.36 on news that the Clinton campaign has requested that family members not shake hands).

Creativity gave me a tip that François Fillon was showing a nonzero price for winning the French Les Républicains primary. Assured that both Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy would have to die by November 27 for Fillon to have a chance, I entered a max buy order with my spare funds. I only got one "No" share, at 55¢. I bought again, and got a share at 60¢. I kept buying a share at a time, and after buying at 80¢ had bid the price up to 97¢. Apparently this was a new market and PredictIt seeded it with shares at a range of prices until buyers and sellers would settle somewhere. My six shares are up $1.78 ... Creativity: I am buying at Macdo next time you visit.