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b_b  ·  2800 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Planning the Purge: GOP life after Trump

I'm having difficulty figuring out how they compile their odds. For example, NYT has Trump at 12% chance of victory. They have him at like 28% of winning FL, and a 7% chance of winning PA, with a 0% chance of winning without winning both. Not sure how you get a 12% overall chance from that. I guess they assume a strong correlation, so that if he does better than expected in one, he'll do better than expected in the other???