COVID19 is spreading, but distancing rules were/are being relaxed. There will be (is?) a second wave, and it will be worse than the first. Political points of view don't factor into that. I didn't see it 8 days ago either, but based on the numbers and behavior, it was easy to predict.I question the reliability of the numbers, but that's the evidence we have and I don't see a second wave today.
Nothing about this seems easy to predict to me; I am constantly perplexed. The CDC cases per day metric looks much worse than it did 12 days ago, just what I would think of a a second wave. But of course "cases" means diagnosed and reported cases, and that number depends on factors unrelated to health. Mortality seems like a more reliable indicator, "lagging" though it may be. By this measure the CDC reports improvement every week since mid-April, both for deaths involving COVID-19 and deaths from all causes. I note that these reports have a delay of "1 week to 8 weeks or more" so we should come back to check the 5,577 (COVID-19) and 53,678 (all cause) numbers that now appear for the week ending 5/30/2020.easy to predict
The median time to death from contracting is about 24 days (5.5 + 18.5). I believe the average is higher than 24, not lower. In two weeks the numbers of deaths will rise like the numbers of cases are now. Check me on that. I think that deaths from all causes is probably the most conservative measure.