a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by ilex
ilex  ·  1595 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Open Thread: Impeachment Hearings

Yeah, as much as I'd like to think that people in general don't like Trump, I am constantly reminded that there are plenty of Trump supporters out where I live. Lotta people who like guns will vote R even if they don't really care for Trump. I wonder if we'll see some anti-abortion legislation come up soon or if they're going to pick a different hot topic to drum up support for instead.

I don't know what to make of it. I grew up in a really conservative family, so I understand more or less how they think, but it still boggles my mind that I've grown out of that mindset and they haven't moved an inch and I don't think they ever will. What can you do with that? How do you get people to care enough to learn about stuff outside their bubble?

Honestly I've been trying not to think about it too much. I subscribed to https://www.impeachment.fyi/ and that's all the reading I do. I'll worry about the election when the Dems know more or less what candidate they're actually going to run.





am_Unition  ·  1595 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I was raised southern Baptist, but just kinda gradually became a scientist. I've managed to somewhat liberalize my parents over the last decade. The more likely explanation is that they simply stayed "conservative", while Trump, the GOP, and Fox yanked the steering wheel towards fascistland.

I've tried to talk with Trump folks about why he is unfit to serve, or the crimes he has committed, etc., but there isn't anything constructive here to say, except: don't try to broach politics whatsoever, at this point. No good will come of it.

Amid the completely incoherent White House impeachment messaging strategy, you have to wonder how much longer the alt-right information megabubble can last. But then you have to ask yourself, "wait, how many times have I wondered this before?", and decide whether you want to keep believing public opinion of Trump will eventually shift below some threshold far enough that the GOP members of Congress finally agree to exercise even just one iota of oversight.

Anyway, here's a look at someone who almost assuredly still supports Trump (this is not a joke):

Classic.

kleinbl00  ·  1595 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Lotta people who like guns will vote R even if they don't really care for Trump.

People will vote for something they believe in. People voted for Trump because they believed the system needed a kick in the nuts. They're seeing it. am_unition's comment points out that the government shutdown hurt Trump's approval because it put a lot of people out of work.

Political allegiance is very much identity. The question being asked by everyone is whether enough Americans will identify with Trump in 2020 - because that determines how you run, democrat or republican. You don't need to be politically savvy to have an opinion about whether your life has gotten better or worse under Trump. In 2016, he was the protest vote. In 2020, he's the establishment vote. These are dynamics that can be modeled but they can't be easily predicted.

ilex  ·  1595 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Here's the thing though: you and I knew a vote for Trump was really a vote for the establishment back in 2016. Sure, he mucked about a bit with the executive branch's administration, but his policies pretty consistently tend to favor large corporations and the rich.

But if people still believe he's the protest vote, the underdog, in 2020, they'll still vote for him even if their life has gotten worse since 2016 because it's better than the Dems winning. I'd be happy to be proven wrong here, but I'm pretty cynical about people in 2020 suddenly stepping back, taking an evenhanded look at policy, and basing their vote on that rather than what plays on Fox News.

kleinbl00  ·  1595 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Here's the thing though: you and I knew a vote for Trump was really a vote for the establishment back in 2016. Sure, he mucked about a bit with the executive branch's administration, but his policies pretty consistently tend to favor large corporations and the rich.

Right. We weren't going to vote for him anyway. We weren't going to vote for the Republicans regardless. We had to be talked into holding our noses and voting for Hilary, the most establishment candidate in the history of establishment candidates (barring Biden). But the whole world spent 2016 arguing Donald Trump had no business running for president.

    But if people still believe he's the protest vote, the underdog, in 2020, they'll still vote for him even if their life has gotten worse since 2016 because it's better than the Dems winning.

...is it better than not voting?

More people turned out to flip Congress blue than turned out to punish Johnson for the Civil Rights Act. We're not talking about people "stepping back, taking an evenhanded look at policy, and basing their vote on that". We're talking about people endorsing the past four years enough to take time off work to sign their name to it.

Or, alternatively, doing the same to say "this stops now."

I'm not saying it's in the bag. I'm saying that the dynamics at play are not necessarily the ones people keep bringing up and fatigue is definitely setting in at the Trump rallies.