People will vote for something they believe in. People voted for Trump because they believed the system needed a kick in the nuts. They're seeing it. am_unition's comment points out that the government shutdown hurt Trump's approval because it put a lot of people out of work. Political allegiance is very much identity. The question being asked by everyone is whether enough Americans will identify with Trump in 2020 - because that determines how you run, democrat or republican. You don't need to be politically savvy to have an opinion about whether your life has gotten better or worse under Trump. In 2016, he was the protest vote. In 2020, he's the establishment vote. These are dynamics that can be modeled but they can't be easily predicted.Lotta people who like guns will vote R even if they don't really care for Trump.
Here's the thing though: you and I knew a vote for Trump was really a vote for the establishment back in 2016. Sure, he mucked about a bit with the executive branch's administration, but his policies pretty consistently tend to favor large corporations and the rich. But if people still believe he's the protest vote, the underdog, in 2020, they'll still vote for him even if their life has gotten worse since 2016 because it's better than the Dems winning. I'd be happy to be proven wrong here, but I'm pretty cynical about people in 2020 suddenly stepping back, taking an evenhanded look at policy, and basing their vote on that rather than what plays on Fox News.
Right. We weren't going to vote for him anyway. We weren't going to vote for the Republicans regardless. We had to be talked into holding our noses and voting for Hilary, the most establishment candidate in the history of establishment candidates (barring Biden). But the whole world spent 2016 arguing Donald Trump had no business running for president. ...is it better than not voting? More people turned out to flip Congress blue than turned out to punish Johnson for the Civil Rights Act. We're not talking about people "stepping back, taking an evenhanded look at policy, and basing their vote on that". We're talking about people endorsing the past four years enough to take time off work to sign their name to it. Or, alternatively, doing the same to say "this stops now." I'm not saying it's in the bag. I'm saying that the dynamics at play are not necessarily the ones people keep bringing up and fatigue is definitely setting in at the Trump rallies.Here's the thing though: you and I knew a vote for Trump was really a vote for the establishment back in 2016. Sure, he mucked about a bit with the executive branch's administration, but his policies pretty consistently tend to favor large corporations and the rich.
But if people still believe he's the protest vote, the underdog, in 2020, they'll still vote for him even if their life has gotten worse since 2016 because it's better than the Dems winning.
