Nice write up, veen. I actually think, despite the excitement of the "new" companies' technologies, that Cadillac's Super Cruise is the biggest advancement announced in 2014. For background, Super Cruise is a system that allows the driver to let the car take over once the car is on the freeway. That certainly doesn't sound as impressive as Google or Tesla, but it has a giant advantage. That advantage is that GM sells cars for as little as less than $20,000. They also have a history of introducing technologies on Cadillacs, and then quickly offering them as options on their other, less expensive brands (they create "aspirations"). Tesla has no such brands, and Google, despite the hype, isn't a player. GM has by far the best foothold to get consumers used to not driving. And, we all know that customers get used to something and stick with it. AND, we all know that people like incremental change more than they like abrupt change. For these reasons, I think that GM will be the big fish when the dust settles.
GM has indeed the best position to gain a large market. The problem with this technology is that it is moving at blazing speed. I've tried to limit my predictions as much as possible for that reason. GM's goal is to get a Cadillac on the road with this technology in 2017. Assuming that works, it will be at least a year, possibly two until most of the GM fleet has the same kit of sensors, and they will definitely start at the higher end because this tech ain't cheap just yet. So we're talking about 2018 or 2019 for mass-scale production at the very least. Just two years ago, Google's cars couldn't handle roundabouts, railroad crossings, unpaved roads and most busy areas without failing. Tesla hadn't even started working on their Autopilot features yet. I don't think I can make good predictions for three, four or five years in the future. Especially since Tesla is working on the Tesla 3, a $30,000 car for the masses. They might just beat GM to the punch.For these reasons, I think that GM will be the big fish when the dust settles.
You're making one mistake here. The "if" component. It won't be rolled out if it doesn't work, and if it didn't work they wouldn't be putting it on 2017 models. The way the auto industry works cars are set for production several model years ahead of time, and it can take easily 10 years to get a car from design to showroom. GM isn't just starting with Cadillac because of expense; it's also marketing. It's not as if a Silverado isn't already $50k, or a Corvette isn't $80k. Their strategy is about building Cadillac as a luxury car and then letting the proles who drive Chevys and Buicks have a piece of the action, too.Assuming that works, it will be at least a year, possibly two until most of the GM fleet has the same kit of sensors, and they will definitely start at the higher end because this tech ain't cheap just yet. So we're talking about 2018 or 2019 for mass-scale production at the very least.
It makes sense for GM to already plan this feature to be added to most of their fleet. Still, my guess is that it will be limited to a couple of high-end models first, with the mass market in a second wave. Interestingly, Mercedes showed this off today at CES:
I think that Google will get into the car business the way they got into the phone business: license a spec, partner with manufacturers and reap the benefits of being the consumer-facing side of things. If that's the case, GM is at a distinct disadvantage in that they're the only company with anything like OnStar. It's going to be that much harder for them to make room on the dashboard for another piece of middleware.
Very true. OnStar was forward thinking in the 90s, but it's obsolete and obtrusive now. The fact that it's a brand is the only thing that keeps it alive. Maybe if they don't brand Super Cruise or its successive generations in the same way they'll stay more adaptable. Edit: My point isn't that a brand can't be stripped from consumers; it's that it can't be stripped internally. Once you have a brand, you have a brand manager, a budget, employees, a VP, etc. Each of these things becomes a lobbying firm within the finance department.