>To Belarusians, Lukashenko’s security forces are men to be feared, but when compared with Putin’s FSB, they are not so bad … as long as you keep your head down.

A statement as far reaching as it is unproven.

>John Sweeney, author of the e-book Big Daddy, about the President’s rule, believes the 2011 Minsk Metro bombing was a false flag attack, part of a “strategy of tension” that claimed the lives of fifteen bystanders then and two young patsies executed in 2012

Really, what else could it be in a totalitarian evil dictatorship?

>But in a country as badly mauled as Belarus was in the 1930s under Stalin, and then during WWII by Nazi occupiers

Ahhh, the good old "let's find a historical influence, no matter how old or unrelated to the situation at hand".

I wonder why the articles on France don't come with something like "in a country as badly mauled as France was in the 1800 by the Revolution, and then during WWII by Nazi occupiers".

On a side note, a good deal of current Belorussian territory it got under Stalin.

>or of the families of individuals shot at night since independence with specially made executioners’ pistols

Nothing on "specially made executioners' pistols" in the decision linked.

>One only need look at Chechnya from 1991 on, or at Belarus’s own list of unresolved political disappearances, to understand why the fate of Lyuba Kovaleva’s son Vlad, one of those executed last year over the bombing, or of the families of individuals shot at night since independence with specially made executioners’ pistols, would garner so little sympathy from their fellow Belorussians.

I'm not quite making the connection. There was a war in Chechnya, so there's no reason for sympathy towards the disappeared oppositionaries?

>A new protest, backed by the many, would see the end of him.

A protest backed by many would have seen the end of him long ago, the only problem is finding the support of these many, because, as said a paragraph down,

>protest turnout is neither overwhelming nor enduring

Then,

> Since 1991, fear of turning out like Russia has discouraged calls for change

Why not "fear of turning out like Tajikistan", for that matter? Or "like the Baltic States"? Belorussians has a few countries to compare themselves to, and they're by far not the worst off.

> Belarusians aren’t demanding cheaper bread and warmer houses in addition to new elections and the release of political prisoners. It is not that conditions are so much better than they are in Russia...

Oh, so, Russians are demanding cheaper bread and warmer houses, then? I wonder how I missed that.

>Whatever his true thoughts on the planned economy are as a former collective farm director, Lukashenko need not be a committed socialist to understand that releasing such market forces in his country – by allowing anything more than a few fast food places to open – could have the effect of putting thousands out of work and into the streets.

And this is why he isn't doing this, yes, while at the same time keeping the economy at competitive disadvantage.

>And just as “many sophisticated Egyptians reason that Western political projects are ultimately more attuned to NATO security interests than Western ideals,” accounting for widespread mistrust of foreign NGOs working there, the view from Belarus is broadly similar when it comes to the foreign promotion of democracy, human rights, and those three dirty words that so often accompany the former: “the free market.”

I wonder why, ha. Might that be because the solutions offered, like the aforementioned "free market" in the libertarian sense of the world, are never implemented by these offering them, hm?

>North Korea is the model here, not for nukes (Belarus has none,) but on the principle of hereditary succession. [...] In Belarus, Sweeney suggests, “a new dynasty is in the making” in which Lukashenko’s sons are being groomed to succeed him.

I am sure they're having the same charismatic legitimacy, and have the same PR image of saving the country from sliding into chaos of the 90ies as their dad. Oh wait, no they don't.