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comment by mk
mk  ·  4834 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Debunking the Bunk
First off, just so we are starting in the same place, my assumption is that we all know that tax cuts are red ink when enacted, but the idea is that giving tax $ back to the population via tax cuts results in revenue that more than offsets the reduced revenue via taxation. Thus, a lower rate can sometimes result in more revenue than a higher one.

It took a bit of searching around, but that is an excellent resource. I find it hard to test the claim (and this is probably why people argue it so much), because for receipts they have absolute $, and they have % of GDP, but my guess is that adjusting for inflation might also need to be looked at. That said, my gut reaction is that as far as income taxes go, a correlation with receipts might be difficult to make. This is an interesting chart of US income taxes, 1913-2010. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_tax_in_the_United_States...)

Still, I don't wholly buy the initial premise. Just as important as tax receipts, IMO you need to look at the deficit/surplus. If the government is deficit spending, then tax revenue will increase too. For example, if the government buys 3 aircraft carriers by selling Treasury bonds to China, then those companies that built the carriers will report higher earnings and pay more taxes that year. (That could cover the gap due to the drop in their rate.) So for example, during the GWB years, although rates dropped, government spending increased, and contractors were paying taxes on profit made by loans from China (and others). It muddies the waters for sure. You could hide loss revenue due to tax cuts by deficit spending.

IMHO not all taxes, (or tax cuts) are created equal. Of course we want the government to provide some services (especially those that we want run at cost or at a loss), and we want them to step aside when profit motivation and market demand produces a satisfactory result. Taxes spent when the market does not provide the best solution seem to me to be good ones, and taxes that are spent to provide what the market could seem to me to be ones that should be cut.

Of course, we are in a deficit situation, so this is so much more complicated.

Endlessly interesting topic, btw. The link is great.





hootsbox  ·  4817 days ago  ·  link  ·  
When looking at the gross receipts year by year, the receipts are in current dollars during those years, so looking at the span from 1934 to current, the inflation rate would not have the impact you might think. For instance, during the 1980's, inflation was relatively low, but gross receipts, including medicare and social security receipts, the total revenues grew 173%. The inflation would not even make a dent in that figure. However, usually we do adjust in real dollars like the CBO forecasts are in constant 1965 dollars through 1990. Still they were off by a factor of 7 times - not a good track record.