I think he'll get the nomination but lose the general election. At this point, there's no way he's falling apart. He has plenty of support and seems to be scandal proof. Our only hope is that the fact that Trump, as the Republican choice, will motivate people that don't normally vote to vote against him and prevent him from gaining office.
Frankly, I think the Democrats are thrilled by this. A Trump nomination will basically hand the election to them, plus set back the Republican Party into the stone age. The rapidly expanding section of the country that is not white, well-off, and rural based will not soon forget the awful propaganda that Trump is sure to spew during the general election cycle, and that the Republican party is effectively endorsing.
In short, I think this election cycle is the death knell of the Republican Party as we know it. Change or die, mother fuckers.
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I believe most true independents (not self-professed libertarians) have been voting Democrat for the past many years as a defensive crouch against unrepentant Republican lunacy. This would be one more major loss for Repubs and yet again those of us watching will shake our heads and wonder why they just don't get that the so-called Southern Strategy has played itself out to its logical end and proven to be neither sensible nor viable.
In disclosure, I myself was a switch-hit voter for years, voting on each issue and candidate as I saw appropriate. That pretty much ended when Newt Gingrich gained prominence in Congress and began this era of institutionalized Republican idiocy replete with trumped-up scandals, government shutdowns, anti-science actions, and so forth. I am one of those defensive voters I mentioned above, and I hate being in this position.
If we had run off voting or some other better representational system, I would totally be voting for a certain candidate who's neither a Republican nor a Democrat.
(continued elsewhere in thread)