I'm reminded of something William Gibson said, I think we'll have the technology to end disability by 2064, but it will be some time before we have the economic capability or distribution to quantitatively "end disability."The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.
Hm, why do you estimate 2064? With the massive technological advancements today it seems like the year would be somewhat earlier. Do you have any sources for future estimates?
The year 2064 is from the article; not my estimate. But I do think it's a reasonable, conservative, estimate. Ah, but which ones? That's the hard part. Technology is hard to predict. Will we make signifigant progress in 50 years? Definitely. But to select a single advancement and say "we will achieve this" is like playing the lottery. I mean, if you had asked in the mid 90's, 'Will consumer electronics have 10ghz chips by 2014?' Almost anyone would have said 'undoubtedly.' If you had asked anyone in 1970 if we'd have a moon base by 2014, who would have bet against? But we hit some unexpected walls. NASA got unexpected funding cuts. Technological progress is unpredictable.massive technological advancements today