Yeah I knew most of that, but I guess what I'm asking is how much stock should I put into his opinion if all he does is look at pools and predict elections - does he have a good track record with things other then elections? Im not sure how much stats can tell us about things like foreign policy and random happenings in domestic policy, so im not sure if he is worth reading when its not an election year.
Well, actually, I first started reading him back in the Baseball Prospectus days, because that sort of thing is one of my hobbies. He did things like this, which baseballreference, the premier statistics website, uses on every single player page. I know you meant politically, but still. And I'm operating under the assumption that at this point you've read the article and thus know that a significant part of it, and a significant part of the shutdown in general, deals with who will win the upcoming House elections -- something Silver is perhaps more qualified to talk about than anyone.does he have a good track record with things other then elections?