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kleinbl00  ·  419 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Three Reasons Most Analysts Were Wrong on War in Ukraine

I was so fucking wrong about Ukraine. I like to think I can distinguish myself somewhat by owning how wrong I was and applying the lesson of being really fucking wrong to everything else I hold true.

But I'm just a dude with a modem, man. There's plenty of wrong to go 'round on Ukraine. The fact that the CIA got it right is... I mean, that's a new perspective, too.

Day before yesterday a blog nobody reads ran an absolutely bugshit photo. Shitty resolution. No source. NOBODY believed it. Then 36 hours later, the Pentagon dropped that shit in 4k.

The Ockham's Razor on the situation is the U-2 guys gave their selfie to their favorite blog the day before the Pentagon did because it was fun to do that.

Matt Stoller observed that Biden's state of the Union was the first one since 1979 to contain the word "antitrust." I dunno. For the first time in a long, long time I'm starting to feel like maybe the government isn't a total dumpster fire.